I started this thread last year - and thought that an update was needed.
I came through the winter with no losses and strong, low varroa hives (an oxalic acid vapour treatment in Jan may have coincided with a period of few sealed brood). With plenty of hazel and willow pollen in the rural hedges I fed steadily through to April with fondant (longer than usual). By mid May, hives were 5-7 frames sealed brood and bursting with bees. June was spent controlling swarming and gaining arm/back strengthening through lifting heavy supers during inspections. As of this week swarming activity seems to have stopped (fingers crossed). Weekly/fortnightly Varroa counts since Feb have given (from five hives) just an occasional mite dropping from a mesh floor.
What do I conclude? - that my bees are not a late-swarming strain - and that hives with strong local (blackish) genetically heterogeneous bees, well fed for a spring build-up and with low varroa numbers do well and swarm at the normal time of year. I seem to remember my beginners class tutor telling me something similar.
Why the change over previous years? - I guess another year of beek experience has made the difference.
Are there other reasons for the change? - as with all anecdotal stuff, I might just have been lucky in a good spring/earl summer.
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