Yet another puzzle

[Eric McArthur]

Hi Grizzly

Modest set-up indeed! I was green wit envy! Especially with the working scale model aeroplanes which you build and fly, to say nothing of the idyll where you have your home, surrounded with every conceivable, active season, round of nectar bearing plants, which you have systematically planted over time for your bees!

Eric

Eric

[Eric McArthur]

Hi Gavin
You being a scientist, I am staggered that you could even ask me such a question - and I quote "What were you expecting him to say? This beggars belief!

Eric

[Eric McArthur]

Hi Gavin
You being a scientist, I am staggered that you could even ask me such a question - and I quote "What were you expecting him to say? This beggars belief!

Eric

[Stromnessbees]

Allright, here's the verbatim translation:

Hallo Herr Mc Arthur,

Hello Mr. Mc Arthur,

herzlichen Dank für Ihre E-Mail und Ihren interessanten Artikel.

sincere thanks for your email and your interesting article.

Ich halte den längerfristigen Erhalte einer Bienenpopulation von 10
Völkern für nicht möglich.

I consider the long term upkeep of a bee-population of 10 colonies to be impossible.

Ist die komplette Isolation von Imkereien In
Schottland Realität?

Is the complete isolation of apiaries in Scotland a reality?

In der Anlage einige Papers zu dem Inzucht.

In the attachment some papers regarding inbreeding.

Gruß

Greetings

Kaspar Bienefeld

[gavin]

Hi Eric

For the umpteenth time, no-one (certainly not me) is denying a risk of inbreeding in isolated locations with small numbers of colonies. What we have argued about in this thread is:

- the effect of a repeated halving and doubling of numbers of colonies (which you still don't seem to understand)

- the theoretical carrying capacity (in terms of alleles) of a small number of colonies

- the degree of isolation of colonies in Scotland (length of a piece of string argument, but many places are not that isolated, some are)

So:

.... and I quote "What were you expecting him to say? This beggars belief!

Perfectly reasonable question - we could argue about the exact number but why was anything he said unexpected? I get the feeling that you are just arguing for the sake of it.

Think deep!

Weren't we?

best wishes

Gavin

[Eric McArthur]

Hi Gavin

Read Prof Bienefeld's lips! He is not even talking about halving, quartering or otherwise reducing colony numbers. He is quite categorically stating that 10 colonies in isolation in the long term cannot be sustained. He is also actually considering a much better colony composition than I originally postulated.

Ich halte den längerfristigen Erhalte einer Bienenpopulation von 10 Völkern für nicht möglich.
I consider the long term upkeep of a bee-population of 10 colonies to be impossible.

Quote Originally Posted by Eric McArthur View Post
.... and I quote "What were you expecting him to say? This beggars belief!
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Gavin - Perfectly reasonable question - we could argue about the exact number but why was anything he said unexpected? I get the feeling that you are just arguing for the sake of it.
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Eric - I expected him to make an objective statement based on his sound scientific background as the leading German authority on honey bee genetics. Also you ask ".. but why was anything he said unexpected"? So by your own admission you are telling the present participants in this thread that you knew all along that my 10 colony postulation was right and that Prof Bienefeld could only agree with it. Gavin, I think you have gotten yourself entangled in the thread, of this thread. Time for bed!!

Doris - Many thanks for your objective translation of the Bienefeld prose!
Jon - Your statement that the temperatures in your area were less than in Scotland, coupled to your observations on H.balsam are a good start for an elimination process of what killed the honey bee last winter!

Eric

[gavin]

... that you knew all along that my 10 colony postulation was right and that Prof Bienefeld could only agree with it. Gavin, I think you have gotten yourself entangled in the thread, of this thread.

You didn't have a postulation that 10 colonies were too few. You postulated that:

- 10 colonies would have 160 csd alleles
- halving 10 colonies annually to five then doubling them again would annually half the allele count
- repeating this until the end of year 6 drops the allele count to 2
- that 'critical mass is reached!', and within six generations 'the diminution of genetic diversity would seem to be irreversible'

That you misunderstood the situation so badly and published it in two beekeeping magazines should be embarrassing enough. That you can engage in discussion with people who actually do think about such problems and still come away confused is ... well .... it isn't good.

I don't believe for a minute that Prof Bienefeld agreed with your scheme for beekeeping Armageddon. I wonder if his comments on 10 colonies were offered as general advice rather than a dogmatic statement on the minimum size of a population in the long term. It depends for one thing on what 'the long term' means. Forever is a long time, but 6 generations to complete collapse is something else.

Your scheme would suggest that, if 10 colonies would have only 2 alleles after 6 years of this cycle, then 20 colonies would take 7 generations to get to the same point. 40 would take 8 generations and 80 colonies take just 9 generations to get to that critical point. Take this to its logical conclusion and if Scotland had 20,000 colonies (it probably has significantly less than that) then the McArthur Scheme would have the entire Scottish genepool down to 2 alleles in a mere 17 years, even if it was all in one apiary. Nice one.

G.

[Jon]

Hi Eric.

Why don't you send a copy of your Scottish Beekeeper article which mentions 160 CSD alleles to Prof Bienefeld and invite comment.
If you are right, and everyone else posting on the thread is wrong, I am sure he will back you up and you can post here for Doris to translate.

[Eric McArthur]

Hi Jon

The offending article is what he commented on - The article in question was sent with my original mail to him! Doris has already received all the material that I sent him. Doris also has all the material he sent me in his reply - including some really interesting work on line breeding, which further confirms my 10 colony postulation. Over to you Doris!
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Gavin
Give it up! Your credibility is in tatters!

Eric

[gavin]

I think that we'll let the readers of the forum make their own judgement on that. This takes me full circle and back to the first post:

'You need a thick skin, but it does get tiresome.'

G.