I was just reading a thread about the stages of worker development, ie 3days, 6 days and 12 days and the fact that the proportion of eggs to open brood to sealed brood gives an indication of colony development.
It reminded me of my own swarming theory which I have not had chance to air yet, apart from to friends in my local association. I would like to bounce this off some of the readers here as I am sure a discussion will be helpful and perhaps interesting to others - even if nobody agrees with my theory!
Here goes:
It is standard thinking that if a colony has a greater proportion of, say,open brood than half the closed brood then the queen's laying rate has, during the period between 3 days and 9 days ago, been greater than it was in the previous 12 days. If there is also plenty of eggs then it shows that the colony is expanding. Now, according to my theory, one of the factors that controls expansion rate is the capacity of young workers to feed brood. If all other things are equal (weather, nectar availability etc) a colony that expands quickly suggests that its workers can produce brood food more quickly than one that expands slowly. This would explain my observation that a pure and non-prolific queen will often produce a much bigger colony and expand more quickly if the workers she produces display hybrid vigour.
Now Eddie Woods observed a droning sound that he put down to nurse bees that had nowhere to deposit their royal jelly while a queen was being slimmed down in preparation to swarm. However, my guess is that the sound is from nurse bees that are too plentiful in numbers and don't have enough open brood to feed. It does not normally happen early in the season because the queen is laying at the rate commensurate with the workers' ability to nurse. To maintain this happy state the queen needs to keep increasing her laying rate so that the colony is forever expanding.
Soon after this expansion stalls the nurses start to become redundant, start moaning about it (Eddie's drone) and swarm preparations are started. It makes perfect sense because the nurses are redundant and are a burden to the colony and probably get on everyone's wick to boot. Hence it costs nothing to bundle these trouble makers off in a swarm and get back to expansion mode again.
If my theory is right then the way to capitalise on it is to constantly rob hives of sealed brood. It limits the number of nurses available at any time and increases the number of open larvae.
In 2012 we had a terrible season. It start well but it quickly deteriorated and queens stopped laying after accelerating up to speed very quickly. It meant that the colonies had only half built up in size before they stalled. We all thought we were safe from swarming because the colonies were all so weak. We were wrong. They swarmed suddenly and caught everyone in these parts unprepared. This can be explained by my theory as the queer season resulted in plenty of young nurse bees but little or no brood to keep them occupied.
This season I have been testing my theory and am now more convinced than ever of its value. Conventional swarm prevention methods such as ensuring there is always expansion space in the hive all help to put off the day when the nurses outnumber their charges and so work until the queen reaches her maximum laying rate or the weather intervenes.
That's my theory. I hope I managed to explain it clearly although it's quite simple really.
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