I'm not sure what I can add - Jon has more or less covered it. I might be a bit more optimistic (or pessimistic?) that the bees will die out. Most colony losses are in March (even April), as stores run out and their need for them rockets. Keeping an eye on them in April is wise, and if there is no activity on a warm day when her neighbour's bees are very active then you could suspect that they have died out. That would be the time to seal up any spaces to prevent a recurrence. Into May and other colonies might be throwing off swarms again, risking reoccupation. As the regards the neighbour's claims, swarms do sometimes arrive in the vicinity of established colonies. Something seems to attract them. The beekeeper ought to have marked his queens, so he should be able to tell if he has let a swarm go. Once a swarm has properly set up home it becomes very difficult to shift it without physically cutting it out. Some have had success by forcing the bees to travel through a small box with another colony and inserting a one-way valve, but you can't do this at height.
Feral colonies usually die out due to varroa but if the colony is still alive at this point of the winter there is a good chance it will survive another summer. Your acquaintance could get a local beekeeper to put a bait hive in the garden which could attract a swarm over the summer. The problem is that there could be a lot of honey and wax in the chimney which could melt or drip and cause damage. The other issue is that even if the colony dies out a new swarm will likely be attracted in by the old brood comb in the chimney. I don't think there is an easy way to remove a colony like this and clean the chimney properly without spending a lot of money.
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